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Research Articles

‘Show me the Money’: The Rise of DPI in Private Markets

Private markets are sitting on a liquidity time bomb in a relatively stalled market. GPs are trapped in extended holding periods, caught between 2021-vintage entry valuations and today’s higher-rate reality, and LPs are running out of patience with ‘paper’ performance. This piece argues that Distributions to Paid-In Capital (DPI) has become the decisive metric in this environment, eclipsing IRR and MOIC because it cuts through subjective marks and focuses solely on realised cash returned. It examines how the DPI squeeze is reshaping GP behaviour - fuelling record levels of continuation vehicles and secondaries, driving lobbying to tap 401(k) capital, and reviving SPACs as a fast, if often dilutive, path to liquidity. Finally, it links today’s liquidity stress to tomorrow’s risks: AI-driven valuation premia with unproven fundamentals threaten another wave of bid–ask standoffs, suggesting that DPI will remain the hard yardstick by which LPs judge managers long after this cycle turns.

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